79282 - Micro and Macro Demographic Analysis

Learning outcomes

The student will be able to manage methodological statistical and demographic tools and to know event history analysis approaches. More specifically, the student will be able to calculate and read the cohort and period demographic measures, to understand the relationships between long, medium and short term components of demographic evolutions and regimes, to analyse individual and biographical data with a cohort approach.

Course contents

The course is divided in two parts. The first one deals with classical approach of demographic analysis. The second part is devoted to techniques of survival analysis and mortality models.

1st part

Reduced events, specific rates and probabilities. Renewable events and non-renewable events.

Basic principles of demographic analysis (intensity and tempo of the processes) in the absence of disturbances (in a pure state) and in the presence of disturbances.

The interference among demographic events. The assumption of the condition of independence between the process under study and other demographic processes.

Cohort analysis and period analysis (recapitulation).

Basic principles of period analysis. The fictitious cohort method and its criticism. The interpretation of period synthetic measures of intensity and of synthetic period tempo measures.

The translation approach: distributional distortion and Ryder translation models.

Lesthaege approach at the fertility analysis.

Life table by causes of death. Decomposition of life expectancy variations by age and cause of death.

Longevity and oldest old mortality risks evaluation.

2nd part

Multiple decrement life tables. Modelling differential mortality. Mortality models with frailty. Application of smoothing techniques to mortality data.

Representing and measuring the rectangularization of the survival curves. Representing and modelling mortality surfaces.

Stochastic mortality models. Lee-Carter model. Maximum likelihood estimation of the Lee-Carter Model. Extension of the Lee-Carter model by inclusion of cohort effects.

Generalized age-period-cohort models. Projected lifetables and prediction intervals.

Construction and use of data from the Human Mortality Database and Human Fertility Database.

Using big data in demography. The IPUMS data collection.

Computer laboratory in R.

 

Readings/Bibliography

The text of the lessons will be given out by the teachers who will also eventually suggests specific readings.

Teaching methods

The contents of the program will be stated within the lessons. In addition, practical work on statistical data will be proposed to the students (software: excel, Stata, R), and will be verified by the teacher.

Assessment methods

The final exam aims to assess the achievement of the following learning objectives:

- Knowledge of the general principles of demographic analysis in the presence of disturbances (in a pure state).

- Types and sizes of interference between demographic events.

- Analysis of longitudinal data applied to various demographic phenomena

- Estimate of mortality curves

The exam is the result of two partial tests for the two modules that make up the teaching. In addition to responding to some questions of theoretical background, students will carry out exercises in which they demonstrate that they can apply the tools acquired and interpret the results. The exercises can also be organized in the laboratory even if the student is able to pass the written test without attending it.

Teaching tools

Teaching tools: Downlodable Power point files and other documents used during the lessons will be at the student disposal on AlmaDL Campus.
Practical examples on demographic data and models will be performed in computer laboratories

Office hours

See the website of Rosella Rettaroli

See the website of Francesco Scalone