79226 - MODELLI PER L'ANALISI SOCIALE E DEMOGRAFICA

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course the student knows the main national and international demographic surveys, acquires the methodological instruments to examine demographic phenomena and is an expert on population models. Particularly, the student is able: - to individualize populations evolutionary mechanisms - to pattern demographic phenomena - to estimate the main unknown parameters of special model populations

Course contents

The course is subdivided into two modules:

1- Methodological aspects of current demographic models (Lucia Pasquini)

2- Micro-based approach for population studies (Roberto Impicciatore)

Module 1- Methodological aspects of current demographic models (Lucia Pasquini)

Population models (Malthusian, stable, quasi-stable and stationary populations).

Model life tables (Coale and Demeny, Ledermann, United Nations for developing countries, Coale and Guo for very low levels of mortality).

Brass's relational life tables system.

Stable population and mortality models.

Nuptiality models (Hajnal and Coale models).

Bongaarts model for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility.

Coale and Trussell fertility model.

Fertility estimation using model stable age distribution (Coale and Demeny, ONU).

Module 2- Micro-based approach for population studies (Roberto Impicciatore)

Micro-level data for social and demographic research

Causal explanation and multivariate analysis

Multiple regression and logistic regression in the socio-demographic analysis

Longitudinal data and the life course approach

Introduction to Event History analysis

Multiprocess regression models

Sequence analysis

Readings/Bibliography

UNITED NATIONS, Manual X. Indirect Tecniques for Demographic Estimation, New York, 1983.

F. Bonarini, Appunti di demografia, CLUEP, Padova, 1993.

Melinda Mills, Introducing Survival and Event History Analysis, Sage, London, 2011

Further texts will be distributed by the teachers

Teaching methods

Lectures, empirical applications, discussion of arguments that the students can deepen.

Assessment methods

Examination aims to assess the achievement of the teaching objectives:
- to individualize populations evolutionary mechanisms
- to pattern demographic phenomena
- to estimate the main unknown parameters of special model populations
The examination consists of an oral test on both modules, which can not be broken down into different moments of examination. The oral examination will evaluate the methodological and critical skills acquired by the student, who will be asked to deal with the topics covered during the course.

Teaching tools

PC, overhead projector 

Office hours

See the website of Lucia Pasquini

See the website of Roberto Impicciatore