11415 - Demographic Models

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course the student knows the main national and international demographic surveys, acquires the methodological instruments to examine demographic phenomena and is an expert on population models. Particularly, the student is able: - to individualize populations evolutionary mechanisms - to pattern demographic phenomena - to estimate the main unknown parameters of special model populations

Course contents

The course is subdivided into two modules:

1- Methodological aspects of current demographic models (Lucia Pasquini)

2- Analysis of populations behavioral models (Alessandra Samoggia)

Module 1- Methodological aspects of current demographic models (Lucia Pasquini)

Population models (Malthusian, stable, quasi-stable and stationary populations).

Model life tables (Coale and Demeny, Ledermann, United Nations for developing countries, Coale and Guo for very low levels of mortality).

Brass's relational life tables system.

Stable population and mortality models.

Nuptiality models (Hajnal and Coale models).

Bongaarts model for analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility.

Coale and Trussell fertility model.

Fertility estimation using model stable age distribution (Coale and Demeny, ONU).

Module 2- Analysis of populations behavioral models (Alessandra Samoggia)

International sources of data for the study of population's social and demographic features (United nations, Eurostat, Who, World Bank).

Fertility surveys.

The new family models in Europe.

The transition to adulthood in Europe

The recent evolution of survival in developed countries.

New reproductive models in developing countries.

Readings/Bibliography

UNITED NATIONS, Manual X. Indirect Tecniques for Demographic Estimation, New York, 1983.

F. Bonarini, Appunti di demografia, CLUEP, Padova, 1993.

Further texts will be distributed by the teachers

Teaching methods

Lectures, empirical applications, discussion of arguments that the students can deepen.

Assessment methods

Examination aims to assess the achievement of the teaching objectives:
- to individualize populations evolutionary mechanisms
- to pattern demographic phenomena
- to estimate the main unknown parameters of special model populations
The examination consists of an oral test on both modules, which can not be broken down into different moments of examination. The oral examination will evaluate the methodological and critical skills acquired by the student, who will be asked to deal with the topics covered during the course.

Teaching tools

PC, overhead projector

Links to further information

http://www.unibo.it/docenti/lucia.pasquini

Office hours

See the website of Lucia Pasquini

See the website of Alessandra Samoggia