B5532 - STATISTICA ECONOMICA

Learning outcomes

At the end of the course, the student will have knowledge of the main aspects related to the observation and basic statistical measurement of economic and financial phenomena. In particular, the student will be able to: -understand the nature and content of the main sources of official statistical-economic-financial information -identify the main aggregates and statistical indicators for the functioning of an economic-financial system and understand their relationships - analyze the temporal and spatial variation of economic-financial aggregates -construct synthetic measures of the production system and production models - analyze consumption behaviors and income distribution -understand introductory elements of risk analysis and portfolio management.

Course contents

Part 1: Measurement and Analysis of Economic Phenomena

Introduction to Economic Statistics: The problem of measuring economic phenomena. Sources of statistical-economic information and main archives. Data quality.

Index Numbers: Elementary index numbers and their properties. Series of fixed-base and moving-base index numbers. Laspeyres, Paasche, and Fisher index numbers. Major index numbers calculated by Istat (NIC, FOI, and IPCA). Deflation using price index numbers calculated by chaining.

Measuring the Variation of Economic Aggregates in Space: Spatial comparisons of economic aggregates using exchange rates and "purchasing power parity." Elementary economic parities. Bilateral and unilateral comparisons. EKS and GK methods.

The National Accounting System and the Model of Sectoral Interdependencies: The European System of Integrated Economic Accounts (SEC95), relevant balances, and the quantitative description of the functioning of the economic system. Input-output tables and the Leontief model. Uses of the model for economic analysis and policy.

Analysis of Time Series: Graphical representations. Classical methods for analyzing temporal economic fluctuations. Unobservable components of a time series. Estimation of components. Moving average method. Exponential smoothing.

Part 2: Measurement and Analysis of Economic Operators' Behavior

Analysis of the Business Operator: Analysis of the production structure. Size and concentration indicators. Measures of specialization and localization of economic activities.

Analysis of the Business Operator: Measures of production and productivity. Production and cost functions. Brief overview of efficiency measures.

Analysis of the Family Operator: Sources and structure of consumption. Models for analyzing the allocation of consumption over time. Models for the analysis of spending behaviors.

Analysis of the Family Operator: Analysis of income distribution. Measures of inequality in income distribution. Indicators for the analysis of poverty and well-being.

Labor Market: Definitions and sources for labor market analysis. Indicators for measuring labor demand and supply. Brief overview of interpretative models of the labor market.

Part 3: Measurement and Analysis of Financial Phenomena

Introduction to the Measurement of Financial Phenomena: Sources of statistical-financial information. Descriptive statistical analysis of financial variables. Price indices for stocks and financial assets.

Return Analysis: Of a financial asset, portfolios of two financial assets, portfolios of n financial assets.

Portfolio Theory: Diversification. Construction of the efficient frontier. The Capital Market Line and the Security Market Line.

Models for the Analysis of Financial Markets: The market model and the Capital Asset Pricing Model. Model specification, estimation methods, hypothesis testing. Advanced models.

Case Studies.

Readings/Bibliography

Giorgio Marbach, Statistica economica, UTET, 1991.

Cheli B., A. Coli (2015, 2a edizione), Lezioni di statistica economica, Il Borghetto. Il testo è in corso di revisione, una copia pdf in bozza è disponibile sulla piattaforma "Virtuale" di UNIBO.

Guarini R., F. Tassinari (2000), Statistica Economica. Problemi e metodi di analisi, il Mulino, 3°

G.M. Gallo, B. Pacini (2002), Metodi quantitativi per i mercati finanziari, Carocci editore, Roma. Chapter 2.

M. Costa (2001), Metodi statistici nell'analisi di variabili finanziarie, CLUEB, Bologna.

 

Alternative program to obtain the CFU necessary to teach Law and Economics in upper secondary schools.

Cheli B., A. Coli (2015, 2a edizione), Lezioni di statistica economica, Il Borghetto. Il testo è in corso di revisione, una copia pdf in bozza è disponibile sulla piattaforma "Virtuale" di UNIBO.

M. Costa (2001), Metodi statistici nell'analisi di variabili finanziarie, CLUEB, Bologna.

Teaching methods

Theory and empirical applications. Students can use STATA with the Unibo license, available at the following link: https://www.unibo.it/secure/software-stata/istruzioni.aspx#licenza .

Students intending to attend the laboratory session in person must complete a safety training session, available in e-learning mode (modules 1 and 2) at https://elearning-sicurezza.unibo.it/ .

Assessment methods

The final test aims to assess the achievement of the following learning objectives:

• In-depth knowledge of the statistical tools discussed during the lectures.
• Ability to use these tools to analyze economic and financial phenomena.
• Ability to use the results to interpret the phenomena under study and support decision-making processes.

The exam consists of a written test and an additional oral component.

The written test includes some questions focused on methods (commonly referred to as “theory questions”) and exercises where students must demonstrate their ability to apply the acquired tools. For example, on the InsegnamentiOnLine (IOL) platform, there is a text available that contains sample questions related to the exam. During the test, the use of supporting materials such as textbooks, notes, or electronic aids is not allowed. The written test is organized in the form of 3 partial exams (one specific partial exam at the end of each of the three modules) or as a comprehensive exam. In the case of the partial exams, the arithmetic average of the three grades will determine the final grade. A student who:

• Fails any module will have to retake the written test in its comprehensive form;
• Fails one or two modules will have to take an additional oral exam or retake the written test in its comprehensive form;
• Passes all modules and wants to improve their final grade may take the additional oral exam.

The written exam lasts from 90 to 120 minutes (partial/comprehensive). The grading scale ranges from 0 to 30 cum laude (equivalent to a maximum of 32 points – cum laude is awarded for scores of 31 and 32).

To take the exam, you must pre-register on AlmaEsami. Those who do not succeed in enrolling by the due date are required to promptly report the problem to the Secretary's office (and in any event before the official closing of the subscription lists). The teacher shall have the right to admit students to the examinations.

It will be possible to discuss the test and ask for clarification on the date of verbalization. The possibility of using alternative office hours to inspect the test is reserved for exceptional cases with a valid reason. Verbalization can occur in the absence of the student.

Teaching tools

Empirical case studies in the computer lab.

Office hours

See the website of Cristina Bernini

See the website of Silvia Emili